Friday, October 10, 2008

What is Fundamental Analysis - SigmaForex

Fundamentals are associated with the economic health of a company, measured in terms of revenues, earnings, assets, liabilities, Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Investments (ROI), growth prospects and cash flows, etc. The fundamentals tell you about a company. You can say a company is having robust fundamentals if it is growing at a nice pace, generating a profit, has limited debts and abundant cash.

The analysis of a company¡¯s fundamentals involves getting deep into its financials, rather than day-to-day movement in its share price. Equity researchers normally do fundamental analysis in order to calculate the intrinsic value of a company¡¯s stock. If a company¡¯s stock is trading above the intrinsic value or fair value, then the stock is overvalued. If a company¡¯s stock is trading below the intrinsic value, then the stock is undervalued. However, if you watch the stock markets very closely, the share price of most companies never matches the fair value. Often, day traders and investors who would prefer short term investment options invest in those stocks, regardless of the companies¡¯ long term growth prospects. However, long term investors generally prefer to invest in companies with robust fundamentals and ignore near-term share price movements.

The following are various components that constitute a company¡¯s fundamentals:

Revenues: Revenues (sales) are the total amount of money received by a company through the sales of its goods and services during a specific period of time. Revenues are one of the most important barometers of the growth of a company as it indicates whether there is demand for their products and services.

Cash flows: Cash flows are calculated by deducting a company¡¯s cash payments from cash receipts over a particular period of time. Cash flows indicate the liquidity position of a company. However, one must pay particular attention to the operating cash flows, since the health of the business can be most clearly seen there.

Net income: Net income,is calculated by subtracting from revenue, all of the company¡¯s costs, such as operating costs, interest expenses, depreciation, taxes and other expenses associated with running the business.

Balance Sheet: Balance sheet is the company¡¯s financial statement, which reflects its assets and liabilities. A company¡¯s fundamentals are said to be robust if its assets are significantly higher than the liabilities. However, one must carefully analyze companies who are reporting large intangible assets as they may have questionable liquidation value to offset any real liabilities.

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SigmaForex - How far can the dollar go down?

Theoretically, the US Dollar can go to zero. While unlikely, it should be remembered that nearly every currency that has ever existed throughout history, eventually has a crash that destroys 90% of absolute value, or more.

Won't foreign Central Banks support the dollar?

Why should they? If you are hungry, and your 600 lb. neighbor (who is now so fat he can't even walk anymore he needs to use one of those little carts) missed a few meals, which happen to be 5x expensive as yours, would you finance his dessert? Of course not. You are thinking many things, but supporting his habit of overeating isn't one of them. The US consumes over 25% of the world's resources but produces less than 10%. Economists may not care for such a crude analogy, but the situation with the US Dollar is very, very simple, and should not be overcomplicated. The USD has been a reserve currency for the post WW2 world, but since Nixon abandon gold standard, the USD is backed by only the belief and faith in US Government. We are seeing a commodity boom, not because of a bubble in commodity asset prices, but because of a decline in the USD, the world's reserve currency in which many commodities (especially Oil and Gold) are priced. In any event, it's not likely that foreign central banks will bail out the dollar, because that would in effect make them eat a realized loss in their current account. Moderately wealthy nations cannot afford to take the loss of the US, the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. The US has been a financial big brother who have bailed out other failing economies  but the US has no big brother to lean on, except maybe Russia, although that wouldn't go over too well in Washington. So if the US Defaults, who can come to the rescue?

Gold is cheap

Adjusted for inflation, Gold should be above 1500  without considering any boom. Many are wondering if commodities can continue to increase, without considering how depressed commodity prices were in the late 90's. An economy can live without services, or money, but people cannot decide not to eat or use Oil. Gold is money, the high price in Gold is reflective of investors concern about the value of money  any money. The US Dollar is a reserve currency so when USD goes down, so do many other currencies. The majority of USD holders are foreigners, but that is changing (in the past 10 years foreign USD holders have decreased from 77% to 62%).

What to do?

An argument of this nature should end in a that's next or that you should do. Unfortunately, this is a complex situation with no magic bullet solution. On a basic personal finances level, one should sell your mortgage at any price and become debt free with low cost of living. Don't bet on any economic upturn that will save your finances, things will only get worse. Second, do what you do well  no matter what the value of the dollar or the state of the economy, there will always be demand for goods and services (unless you happen to be in real-estate business, in which case you could start looking into farms.) The good news is that in any time of chaos, uncertainty, and reorganization, there are always massive opportunities. Taking advantage of them may not require huge amounts of capital. Knowledge of the situation can cause one to be in the right place at the right time or at least not in the wrong place at the wrong time for example it would not be smart to be in south Florida amidst economic suffering which could lead to crime, rioting, overall fraud, and a depressed local economy.

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Choose Your Online Forex Broker | SigmaForex

Online Forex brokers are known to be a required evil if you are going to trade in currency. There are also those people who are eligible to trade without outside assistance, but for the normal trader, enforcing to trade on the Online Forex market with no broker is like trying to chase a grizzly bear with a soup spoon. Your chances of achievement are actually very low, and there is a distinct option you would get hurt quite badly.

Of course choosing the incorrect forex broker might return results same as to the sick fated bear hunt. That is why it is significant that you select a broker in the right way.First thing to be considered is to be sure that the broker you choose has the proper qualifications. When you look at the brokerage firms in the United States, immediately exclude those that are not registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is again important as this designation means that you are confined against scam and any possible abusive forex trading practices. Covering your personal security before a forex trade has been made is a high-quality way to wade gradually into the forex currency market.Once you have removed the ones who do not have the required qualifications, and now have a short list of potential, the internet comes into picture. Just don't go with the brokerage firm, which has the best profitable, or gets the most excellent "Law and Order" individuality to assist in the following advertising, research your choices. A superior idea is to send some effective emails to your customer service people.

Estimate how long it takes them to get in touch to you. This is, after all, a customer examine ambitious profession.Once you are pleased with a firm's experience and customer service practices, its time to get down to your self-assurance tacks.

Online forex trading speed is forever an issue, so find out how fast it takes your own potential online forex broker to carry out an order. Also, you would desire to know how much slippage could be expected. This needs information, which could be discovered in a phone call, or any email to customer service. You would desire these answers not only for regular markets, but for fast moving ones as well.

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The Forex Market | SigmaForex

The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of US$3.2 trillion.
"Foreign Exchange" is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Currencies are traded in pairs, for example Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) or US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY).
There are two reasons to buy and sell currencies. About 5% of daily turnover is from companies and governments that buy or sell products and services in a foreign country or must convert profits made in foreign currencies into their domestic currency. The other 95% is trading for profit, or speculation.

For speculators, we believe the best trading opportunities are with the most commonly traded (and therefore most liquid) currencies, called "the Majors." Today, more than 85% of all daily transactions involve trading of the Majors, which include the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.
A true 24-hour market from Sunday 5:00 PM ET to Friday 5:00PM ET, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York. Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - day or night.

The FX market is considered an Over The Counter (OTC) or 'interbank/interdealer' market, due to the fact that transactions are conducted between two counterparts over the telephone or via an electronic network. Trading is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets.
More informationFor more background about the Foreign Exchange market, review the Federal Reserve Banks' "All About the Foreign Exchange Markets in the United States".

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Thursday, August 14, 2008

Understand This Equation for Success and Win in SigmaForex




Most forex traders lose and the reason they do, is they don't understand the simple equation for forex trading success enclosed in this article.

So learn it as part of your forex trading education and get on the road to currency trading success. Here is the equation and we will discuss its significance in a moment. Robust Logical System + Confidence in = Discipline to Apply = Forex Trading Success Now that's nice and simple - but most traders fail to understand it's significance.

Of course, some traders simply get the wrong forex education, try and apply it and lose - here are some common beliefs of losing traders: - Believing forex day trading or scalping works - Believing prices move to a scientific formula - Trying to predict forex prices in advance - Trusting their money to a forex robot with a simulated, paper track record Believe any of the above and you will lose at forex trading. To win you must understand that having a logical robust forex trading system is not enough, you have to apply it with discipline.

This means you must have confidence in the logic, because you are going to have to apply it with discipline and remember - if you can't apply your forex trading system with discipline, you don't have a system! Most traders hear about the word discipline but have no idea what it means and how important it is and it's a hard trait to acquire. You need to hold your discipline when your trading system is taking loss and after loss (this happens to even the best traders) and keep executing you're trading system with discipline. In a famous experiment, David Carter taught a group of traders who had never traded before to trade and he did it in 14 days.

The trading system taught was basically simple (a long term breakout system) but Carter didn't just tell them to follow it blindly - he taught them to have confidence in the logic, so they would have the discipline to apply it. The result was stunning - these traders made over $100 million dollars in just 4 years and went down as trading legends.

When Carter taught the group, he knew the importance of mindset and sticking with a plan through short term losing periods, to make long term profits and you must to. Discipline is not easy, but if you get the right forex trading education and have the right mindset, you can enjoy forex trading success and you will be doing what over 90% of traders fail to do. The rewards in forex trading are huge and you can generate a great second or life changing income, you must however be prepared to take your losses to get your profits. All successful traders know this and you must to.


Wednesday, August 13, 2008

PIP VALUES | SIGMAFOREX





In most cases, a pip is equal to .01% of the quote currency, thus, 10,000 pips = 1 unit of currency. In USD, 100 pips = 1 penny, and 10,000 pips = $1. A well known exception is for the Japanese yen (JPY) in which a pip is worth 1% of the yen, because the yen has little value compared to other currencies. Since there are about 120 yen to 1 USD, a pip in USD is close in value to a pip in JPY. (See Currency Quotes; Pips; Bid/Ask Quotes; Cross Currency Quotes for an introduction.)
Because the quote currency of a currency pair is the quoted price (hence, the name), the value of the pip is in the quote currency. So, for instance, for EUR/USD, the pip is equal to 0.0001 USD, but for USD/EUR, the pip is equal to 0.0001 Euro. If the conversion rate for Euros to dollars is 1.35, then a Euro pip = 0.000135 dollars.

Converting Profits and Losses in Pips to USD

To calculate your profits and losses in pips to your native currency, you must convert the pip value to your native currency. The following calculations will be shown using USD as an example.
When you close a trade, the profit or loss is initially expressed in the pip value of the quoted currency. To determine the total profit or loss, you must multiply the pip difference between the open price and closing price by the number of units of currency traded. This yields the total pip difference between the opening and closing transaction.
If the pip value is USD, then the profit or loss is expressed in USD, but if USD is the base currency, then the pip value must be converted to USD, which can be found by dividing the total pip profit or loss by the conversion rate.
Example—Converting Pip Values to USD.

You buy 10,000 Canadian dollars with USD, with conversion rate USD/CAD = 1.100. Subsequently, you sell your Canadian dollars for 1.1200, yielding a profit of 200 pips in Canadian dollars. Because USD is the base currency, you can get the value in USD by dividing the value by the exit price of 1.12.
10,000 CAD x 200 pips = 2,000,000 pips total. Since 2,000,000 pips = 200 Canadian dollars, your profit in USD is 200/1.12 = 178.57 USD.

For a cross pair not involving USD, the pip value must be converted by the rate that was applicable at the time of the closing transaction. To find that rate, you would look at the quote for the USD/pip currency pair, then multiply the pip value by this rate, or if you only have the quote for the pip currency/USD, then you divide by the rate.



You buy 100,000 units of EUR/JPY = 164.09 and sell when EUR/JPY = 164.10, and USD/JPY = 121.35.
Profit in JPY pips = 164.10 – 164.09 = .01 yen = 1 pip (Remember the yen exception: 1 JPY pip = .01 yen.)
Total Profit in JPY pips = 1 x 100,000 = 100,000 pips.Total Profit in Yen = 100,000 pips/100 = 1,000 Yen
Because you only have the quote for USD/JPY = 121.35, to get profit in USD, you divide by the quote currency’s conversion rate:

Total Profit in USD = 1,000/121.35 = 8.24 USD.


Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Hedging | SigmaForex

What Is Hedging ?

Basically,
hedging involves the buying (or selling) of currency pair(s) in order to protect the hedger against unwanted currency fluctuations. Traditionally, hedging was used to protect the profits of multinational companies from unfavourable currency fluctuations.Hedging is a great way for these companies to protect their profits, but unfortunately many inexperienced Forex traders have incorrectly applied the same principles to their trading activities.Here’s how a Forex trader may try to hedge his position:Imagine that I buy the EUR/USD currency pair, and the market immediately moves against my position (i.e. prices went down). At this moment, I would be facing an unrealized loss. In order to ‘protect’ myself against further losses, I might sell the EUR/JPY currency pair in the hopes that any gain in the latter pair will partially offset the losses of the former pair.Essentially, I’ll be holding on to two simultaneous ‘long’ and ‘short’ positions for the Euro currency. Hedgers hope that the results of both positions will partially cancel each other out.

Why Hedging is A Bad Idea for Retail Traders ?

This method of hedging is a deathtrap waiting to spring. The original purpose of a hedge was to reduce the uncertainty of company profits.To the retail trader, however, this does the exact opposite!Such a hedging strategy simply leaves too many factors open to risk. Although the Euro price fluctuations may be some what muted, the ‘retail hedger’ now has worry about the USD and JPY currencies too! The EUR/USD and EUR/JPY pairs are not highly correlated and may end up causing an even larger total loss in the end.Many people like to hedge because they don’t want to admit that they made a bad trading decision. They try to ‘safely’ hold on to a losing position for as long as possible in this manner, but don’t realize that they’re actually exposing themselves to even greater risks!

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